creator: Iacoviello, Matteo
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House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis
description- – A structural vector autoregressive approach identifies the main macroeconomic factors behind fluctuations in house prices in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK. Quarterly GDP, house prices, money, inflation and interest rates are characterised by a multivariate process driven by supply, nominal, monetary, inflationary and demand shocks. Tight money leads to a fall in real house prices; house price responses are hump-shaped; the responses of house prices and, to a lesser extent, GDP to a monetary shock can be partly justified by the different housing and financial market institutions across countries; transitory shocks drive a significant part of short-run house price fluctuations.
- – WP540
- – 2002-10-03
- – application/pdf
House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis
description- – A structural vector autoregressive approach identifies the main macroeconomic factors behind fluctuations in house prices in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK. Quarterly GDP, house prices, money, inflation and interest rates are characterised by a multivariate process driven by supply, nominal, monetary, inflationary and demand shocks. Tight money leads to a fall in real house prices; house price responses are hump-shaped; the responses of house prices and, to a lesser extent, GDP to a monetary shock can be partly justified by the different housing and financial market institutions across countries; transitory shocks drive a significant part of short-run house price fluctuations.
- – WP540
- – 2002-10-03
- – application/pdf
Hedging Housing Risk in London
description- – This paper investigates the benefits of allowing households to compensate the portfolio distortion due to their housing consumption through investments in housing price derivatives. Focusing on the London market, we show that a major loss from over-investment in housing is that households are forced to hold a very risky portfolio. However, the strong performance of the London housing market means that little is lost in terms of expected returns. Even households with limited wealth are better off owning their home rather than renting and investing in financial assets, as long as they are willing to face the financial risk involved. In this context, access to housing price derivatives would benefit most poor homeowners looking to limit their risk exposure. It would also benefit wealthier investors looking for the high returns provided by housing investments without the costs of direct ownership of properties. Comparisons with French, Swedish and US data provide a broader perspective on our findings.
- – WP539
- – 2002-10-03
- – application/pdf
Financial Liberalisation and the Sensitivity of House Prices to Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence
description- – We analyse the impact of financial liberalisation on the link between monetary policy and house prices. We present a simple model of a small open economy subject to credit constraints. The model shows that the higher the degree of financial liberalisation, the stronger is the impact of interest rate shocks on house prices. We then use vector autoregressions to study the role of monetary policy shocks in house price fluctuations in Finland, Sweden and UK, characterised by financial liberalisation episodes over the last twenty years. We find that the response of house prices to interest rate surprises is bigger and more persistent in periods characterised by more liberalised financial markets.
- – WP538
- – 2002-10-01
- – application/pdf
Consumption, House Prices and Collateral Constraints: A Structural Econometric Analysis
description- – If borrowing capacity of indebted households is tied to the value of their home, house prices should enter a correctly specified aggregate Euler equation for consumption. I develop a simple two-agent, dynamic general equilibrium model in which home (collateral) values affect debt capacity and consumption possibilities for a fraction of the households. I then derive and estimate an aggregate consumption Euler equation, and estimate its structural parameters. The results provide robust support for housing prices as a driving force of consumption fluctuations.
- – 2004-01-22
- – application/pdf
Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963-2003
description- – I construct a heterogeneous agents economy that mimics the time-series behavior of the US earnings distribution from 1963 to 2003. Agents face aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks and accumulate real and financial assets. I estimate the shocks driving the model using data on income inequality, on aggregate income and on measures of financial liberalization. I show how the model economy can replicate two empirical facts: the trend and cyclical behavior of household debt, and the diverging patterns in consumption and wealth inequality over time. In particular, I show that, while short-run changes in household debt can be accounted for by aggregate fluctuations, the rise in household debt of the 1980s and the 1990s can be quantitatively explained only by the concurrent increase in income inequality.
- – WP629
- – 2005-11-14
- – application/pdf
The Role of Housing Collateral in an Estimated Two-Sector Model of the U.S. Economy
description- – The ability of a two-sector model to quantify the contribution of the housing market to business fluctuations is investigated using U.S. data and Bayesian methods. The estimated model, which contains nominal and real rigidities and collateral constraints, displays the following features: First, a large fraction of the upward trend in real housing prices over the last 40 years can be accounted for by slow technological progress in the housing sector; second, residential investment and housing prices are very sensitive to monetary policy and housing demand shocks; third, the wealth effects from housing on consumption are positive and significant. The structural nature of the model allows identifying and quantifying the sources of áuctuations in house prices and residential investment and measuring the contribution of housing booms and busts to business cycles.
- – WP659
- – 2007-03-25
- – application/pdf
Input and Output Inventories in General Equilibrium
description- – We build and estimate a two-sector (goods and services) dynamic general equilibrium model with two types of inventories: finished goods (output) inventories yield utility services while materials (input) inventories facilitate the production of goods. The model, which contains neutral and inventory-specific technology shocks and preference shocks, is estimated by Bayesian methods. The estimated model replicates the volatility and cyclicality of inventory investment and inventory-target ratios. When estimated over subperiods, the results suggest that changes in the volatility of inventory shocks, or in structural parameters associated with inventories, play a minor role in the reduction of the volatility of output.
- – 2007-03-23
- – application/pdf
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