creator: Baum , Christopher F.
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Long Memory in the Greek Stock Market
description- – We test for stochastic long memory in the Greek stock market, an emerging capital market. The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using the spectral regression method. Contrary to findings for major capital markets, significant and robust evidence of positive long-term persistence is found in the Greek stock market. As compared to benchmark linear models, the estimated fractional models provide improved out-of-sample forecasting accuracy for the Greek stock returns series over longer forecasting horizons.
- – WP356
- – 1996-03-01
- – application/pdf
A Re-examination of the Fragility of Evidence from Cointegration-Based Tests of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency
description- – We re-examine Sephton and Larsen's (1991) conclusion that cointegration-based tests for market efficiency suffer from temporal instability. We improve upon their research by i) including a drift term in the vector error correction model (VECM) in the Johansen procedure, ii) correcting the likelihood ratio test statistic for finite-sample bias, and iii) fitting the model over longer data sets. We show that instability of the Johansen cointegration tests mostly disappears after accounting for these two factors. The evidence is even more stable in favor of no cointegration when we apply our analysis to longer data sets.
- – WP311
- – 1996-02-01
- – application/pdf
Q, Cash Flow and Investment: An Econometric Critique
description- – The effects of measurement and specification error on estimates of the Q and cash flow model of investment are investigated. Two sources of error are considered: expensing of R&D expenditures and failing to identify that component of cash flow which relaxes financing constraints. We apply random-effects and instrumental variables estimators to a model that addresses these sources of error. We find that: (1) the capitalization of R&D strengthens the explanatory power of the model; (2) expected and unexpected components of cash flow have different effects; and (3) the effects of Q are much more evident in firms facing low costs of external finance.
- – WP332
- – 1997-08-12
- – application/pdf
Modeling fixed income excess returns
description- – Excess returns earned in fixed-income markets have been modeled using the ARCH-M model of Engle et al. and its variants. We investigate whether the empirical evidence obtained from an ARCH-M type model is sensitive to the definition of the holding period (ranging from 5 days to 90 days) or to the choice of data used to compute excess returns (coupon or zero-coupon bonds). There is robust support for the inclusion of a term spread in a model of excess returns, while the significance of the in-mean term depends on characteristics of the underlying data.
- – 2000-04-14
- – application/pdf
Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Profitability
description- – This paper investigates the effects of permanent and transitory components of the exchange rate on firms' profitability under imperfect information. Utilizing a signal extraction framework, we show that the variances of these components of the exchange rate process will have indeterminate effects on the firm's growth rate of profits, but will have predictable effects on its volatility. An increase in the variance of the permanent (transitory) component in the exchange rate process leads to greater (lesser) variability in the growth rate of the firm's profits, thus establishing that the source of exchange rate volatility matters in analyzing its effects. Implications of our theoretical findings for the empirical modeling of the underlying relationships are discussed.
- – 2000-02-16
- – application/pdf
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